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As recovery efforts commence following Hurricane Milton, researchers from the World Weather Attribution project have conducted a preliminary assessment to determine if climate change played a role in amplifying its destructive capabilities. Although the findings are constrained by the unavailability of complete meteorological data, evidence suggests that climate change has significantly increased certain factors associated with Milton.
The Influence of Ocean Temperatures on Storm Intensity
Hurricanes gain strength when they pass over warm ocean waters, and ongoing climate change has been gradually elevating ocean temperatures. It is crucial to understand that this warming trend represents an average; however, it encompasses localized extreme temperature spikes. This year alone has witnessed numerous record-high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic region, which also applies to the Gulf of Mexico. Researchers highlight that a separate rapid analysis released earlier this week indicated that the sea surface temperatures—which propelled Milton to Category 5 status while it was in the Gulf—were between 400 and 800 times more likely to occur due to climate change.
The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Strength
This finding aligns with expectations since Hurricane Milton traversed an unusually warm Gulf of Mexico, similar to conditions experienced by Hurricane Helene shortly before. Notably, without the influence of climate change enhancing its intensity, Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 storm rather than reaching Category 3 status.
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